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Analysis and Simulation of Social Networks in Electoral Processes

Alejandro Suárez Buenrostro, Miguel Ángel Martínez Cruz and Idalia Flores de la Mota

The 2010 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC 10)
Ottawa, Canada, July 11-14, 2010


Summary

Statistical results of federal deputies’ elections by political party were analyzed, observing a normal distribution for the major parties and a heavy tails distribution for the minor parties and/or with disappearing tendencies. The heavy tails distribution that particularly predominated was the log-logistic type. With the alpha shape parameter of the log-logistic distribution minor to two, we found that the small parties tend to disappear. Probabilistic simulations were realized in a model with two parties and with different distributions (normal and log-logistic) and we found that, indeed, the log-logistic distribution party with its alpha parameter minor to two tends to win a few times in an election. Therefore, this produces a loss of supporters over time.


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