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Asking the Oracle: Introducing Forecasting Principles into Agent-Based Modelling

Samer Hassan, Javier Arroyo, Luis Antunes and Juan Pavón

The 2010 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC 10)
Ottawa, Canada, July 11-14, 2010


Summary

A general question that often appears when working with agent-based modelling and simulation for complex systems is whether it is possible to make predictions with some degree of confidence. Although many consider that agent-based models are not meant for prediction, some claim that they are mature enough to be able to predict outcomes of social processes, as happens in other fields. The purpose of this paper is first to review the current state of this debate. Afterwards, we consider how core principles from the field of forecasting can be adapted to agent-based modelling. This approach intends to be useful to those modellers who seek the predictive power demanded by stake-holders.


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